9 Comments
Jan 5, 2022Liked by Clint Watts

What's the end game of these extremists? Do they understand the realities of life in parts of the world where governments have toppled and mass chaos, incessant violence, extreme poverty, starvation, homelessness are the staples of daily life? Do they believe life will be a 'real life' video game where they can maim and kill during the day, then go to restaurants and bars at night? I'm trying to understand whether they are trying to remake the US into a war-torn 3rd world country or whether it's a way to cosplay their violent fantasies while being protected by an actual democracy? Clearly there is a faction that is translating fantasies into real life: 1/6, the gunman who just killed 5 people, but are these the exceptions?

Expand full comment

The end game is to take over -government, but also society as a whole- and dictate literally everything about daily life according to their desires. They are not out to get rid of government altogether. What they do not want is any sort of democracy, though many of them will say they do and mean by that that they want an authoritarian/totalitarian government with the likes of themselves in charge which they will either participate in directly or be given the freedom to stomp down without any consequences everyone not like their own little group by. They dream of a country in which they have the absolute right to act out their fantasies of what "real government" is like...they could demand sex from and if they did not get it rape any woman they want, beat/shoot any nonwhite man they feel like was not behaving submissively enough, etc, with zero consequences from anyone other than perhaps for one who stupidly went after the wife of the local bigwig or killed his nonwhite slavie (and left bigwig without that man's labor) without his permission.

I am deadly serious, no pun intended. They are just fine with the idea of the current government being toppled because in their minds that does not lead at all to "war torn 3rd world country"; it leads to them setting up THEIR pure and correct form of government immediately and putting them damned liberals and their flunkies in their place...

They are supremely dangerous because this is also part of their hatred and delusion and they can not see past it to facts.

Expand full comment

Yes, but there are 2 factions: the GOP base who are impatiently awaiting permission to 'go wilding' and the GOP 'elite' who are using the base to consolidate power and wealth. Neither half can win without the other. Neither half can control the other half. Both halves are blind to this stark reality. Every scenario ends badly; the rest of us (and the planet) are collateral damage.

Expand full comment

I am afraid I don't understand why you think this would mean it would all end "badly" and that they should realize that. Let me put it this way...if the GOP base having the rights to rape/stomp/etc makes them happy and the GOP leadership in government/highly paid RW media -which is what you mean by "GOP "elite"", correct?- having the base happily stomping away while they enjoy their wealth is then also happy, where exactly is the problem in terms of their collective POV?

If you mean that the base will figure it out when they get to that point and they still aren't wealthy and calling the shots themselves, I refer you to US history back in the plantation days in the area of say Kentucky and Tennessee. This entire scenario was INVENTED back then by the plantation owners, forced onto the "nonelite", and stuck SO WELL that now we don't even remember it happened or was ever any other way. Back then was a time when slaves and indentured servants were far closer than most people realize and when parcels of land were given male freed slaves/indentured servants who had worked off their indenture (the proverbial "0 acres and a mule"); poor people by and large considered themselves irrespective of race to have far more in common than any of them had with plantation owners and inter race marriage/work was not uncommon either. As the land ran out plantation owners got scared of the oncoming probable uprising by the poor who so vastly outnumbered them, and to preserve their lives and their way of life invented the complex interlocking tenets of a new mythology: 1) Earning wages working for someone else is just as good and makes you just as free and independent as paying your way by working land you own yourself 2) All it takes to join the ranks of the rich if you're poor is hard work 3) --hugely significant-- 2 applies to poor white men because white men are more like plantation owners than are any nonwhite men...ie no, you do NOT have more in common with other poor people, you have more in common with us rich men. 4) Poor white men also have servants -again, just like rich white men- in their women who must serve them. To understand this better, modern people have to understand that women on those little farms had a lot more say than we see in movies and such because both the man and the woman had distinct roles which included duties very necessary for survival -a man can plow/plant/harvest all he likes and starve to death/freeze without a woman preserving foodstuffs and providing clothing etc, BUT while in the new mythology the MAN'S role was still vital (as a wage earner now) the woman's role no longer carried the same significance. Clothing and preserved food could be bought or easily provided by some other person, etc. 5) Women, however, being of course still necessary for a family, though they needed to adjust their expectations to being purely a servant and child provider, ALSO had someone to serve them and that they could safely unload on...all nonwhites. Which, of course, white men also had the right to mistreat whether they were hirees or just random people in the street. Providing those nonwhites actually owned by or indentured to someone were never killed or injured to the point that they could not do their work, anything was fair game. If a poor white man or woman did kill or injure a nonwhite that badly, they owed restitution to the white person who owned that nonwhite or who held the indenture, that was all.

Poor people resisted this nonsense. Plantation owners literally forced it via violence including jail time and executions for those who refused to go along. And in one generation, the plan had succeeded so well that the third generation didn't believe it had ever been any different.

So what does that mean to our scenario now? hw, the rich white peeps ALREADY ran this one and succeeded. Yep, just as you say, they NEEDED the poor white peeps. And they figured out how to get them all the way back then.

This is nothing new.

Expand full comment

I appreciate your perspective and historical context. Perhaps I lack imagination, but as pessimistic as I am, I don't see 81M people just submitting to a reversal of time. I also believe that the GOP will continue its internal death spiral (though it may take a decade). Whether they're able to paper over the rifts for the next 2 election cycles depends in part upon whether the Democratic leadership stops fumbling at every turn. I have little confidence that this will happen. So, all that will save us is a coalition of Democrats, Independents, and never-Trump Republicans, and billionaire CEOs who aren't ready for an economic implosion. There's no other option. Otherwise, I see chaos and anarchy vs a time-warp that turns back the clock 100 years. We'll know soon enough who is correct in predicting the future.

Expand full comment

Thanks! Do try to keep in mind that the Democrats are not in control of the federal "triumvirate" and must persuade at least some Republicans to get on board in the Senate to pass most legislation or accomplish much of anything because of it, regardless of what too many on the extreme left keep claiming. Getting anything done with a 5050 split is just about impossible -it's why the Senate stalled completely and could not even take up any business for so long after the swearing in of the newly elected (with a 5050 split the "majority" as in which party gets to choose the Majority Leader is determined solely on the basis of the party of the POTUS, and the rules of the Congressional session are decided by BOTH parties mutually and MUST be agreed upon before Congress can begin work), and it is behind the massive work of the Democratic MOCs in negotiation with Republicans, not to mention in trying to pass legislation with their 50 including the three Senators (Manchin, Sinema, and Sanders) who consistently tank things with demands for changes or additions or subtractions. That the Democrats have managed to get ANYTHING past that GOP/three deadlocking force is utterly amazing and goes to great credit for their work and that of President Biden whose negotiating voice also has something to do with it.

The voters are responsible for putting more moderate Democrats into Congressional seats in both chambers asap, ie more Democrats who will work with the majority to get the situation this country is in addressed rather than work to block that due to being extreme left/too conservative. The Democratic leadership cannot be faulted for not having the tools we are responsible for handing them. This next election is all important.

Expand full comment

Let's try this again

Your analysis are always interesting,

However I do have a problem with the "bad attitude"

on the counter terrorism community toward singles.

Shouldn't you focus on identifying the root causes.

Were you guys even aware that Russia had targeted any and every moderate to fringe community (even anime fans and gamers). I've been tracking that for 2 decades.

This ranged from videos containing "inserts" not unlike the good old subliminal adds of the 70s.

Then getting gradually more sophisticated with obviously tons of money poured into these experiments.

I'm sure you're aware of what they did with using Onlyfans to draw peoples toward Telegram.

Back to "singles" and how they are misleadingly labbelled by counter terrorism.

Japan has 50% singles, declining sexuality according to studies

Sweden ... getting close

So my question is this

Since I don't know any single who would call themselves voluntarily,

except perhap the so called MGTOW (and that's another controversy)

Why focus on taxonomy and throw every single person onto extremist bangwagon ?

Souldn't you simply round up those guys as far right since their single status is accidental.

Also, why INCEL theory on Chad is fantasy.

Looking around, I found these that seem to hint at a probable cause for their angst.

https://www.menshealth.com.au/research-women-are-attracted-to-psychopaths

https://www.bhg.com.au/study-finds-women-are-attracted-to-psychopaths

Basically psychopaths are what, 2% of the population,

but this study hint they would be 10% of the selection,

and since genetics do play a role in psychopathy, it may not be a good thing.

I'm quite sure it also apply to men (attracted to psychopath women)

and it may explain all those vampire movies.

It seems it's the confidence that create that attraction.

Obviously they don't know the person they are attracted to is a psychopath,

since those are undetectable (unless they commit crimes)

Also, I doubt every single person in those "incel communities" is actually single. Because guys that are single are not going to boast about it, let alone make a forum to discuss it with .. let's face it ... the competition. Neither can they really get advice from other singles.

in fact real singles are probably trying to be friends with real life girls to ask them for advice.

That said, 4chan is one hell of a toxic place. I used to "visit anonymously" just to break up their plans. Nothing worst for them than their effort to harass women going to dust because of someone like me.

(I just report what they did to platform, this could be automated, this shouldn't be "free speech")

I still don't get why the NSA don't use bots to detect those efforts and instantly send report to target platforms.

I saw them deliberately build hate campaign and smear campaign against anyone ranging from activists or famous peoples to asmr girls, and, of course any sexy girl on twitter or onlyfan.

The NSA could do the same to wreck pirate sites, but for some reason don't.

I long suspected the owner of Onlyfan must get a profit from there. He doesn't have the best reputation. And I don't like his blind eye toward those Telegram connection.

As they say, some guy may go to Telegram from Onlyfan for the boobs, but end up with unwanted side effect, such as an influence campaign that may change their views.

Don't mind me, just sharing information.

Keep up the good work

Expand full comment

There's one in every crowd, right? "The most violent extremists have gone do dark by moving to closed..." s.b. "have gone dark by moving to.." or "have moved to..." My OCD, front and center - another great column, Clint.....really!

Expand full comment

What are the major platforms are these people using for distributing podcasts?

Expand full comment